Ideas for this week:

Again I really have to say that I'm loving the action on ICE. Here's the chart:

I know I called this one a few weeks ago but it is going so great I just had to bring it up again: As can be seen good h&S top pattern with a good volume pattern. RSI and MACD are all showing a bearish-divergence. Looks good down to 120-130 area!

IP: has done really well and will definitely suffer some pullbacks since it's gone all the way up to 28/29. A good indicator that it will do well in the long term is that Cramer bashed it in the lightning round so that's always good for business :-p

AA:
So from this chart of alcoa you can see that there is strong resistance at 48 that was established in July of last year. The next thing that can be noticed is that there is an upward trendline (green line). It was broken in early 08 but has since recovered above it. The MACD and RSI have the same trend and were also broken at the same time. The interesting thing about this chart is that AA looks to have form an inverted H&S with a neckline (in purple) at 39. My guess is that this is going to go up hit the resistance come back down to the neckline and then go back up to test that resistance. So we'll see what happens with that more of a watch and wait with this one...

ATI:
This chart isn't set up as well as some of my others but... here goes.

Trendline was broken. Strong resistance at 86. RSI bumping up against the 50 mark and also the downward trendline. Should go down to about 70 but if it breaks 60 it will go down a LOT farther!

SOPW:
DISCLAIMER: I currently own SOPW and this is more for the people that have invested in SOPW with me...
Now let's look at the chart..

Positives: To me it looks like SOPW has found a bottom. It has held support at 1.16 and the MACD has shown a positive divergence through the down-trend-line, ditto for the RSI. Furthermore it broke the down-ward trend-line in mid april.

Negatives: There is a LOT of overhead resistance. First the stock has NEVER been above it's 50 day Moving Average so just getting above that is going to be a real chore (as evidenced by it bumping up against it every time and going lower). But we are reaching a spot where it's going to go over the 50 day MA or it's going to roll-over dead (I hope it's the former and I think it should be the former since it looks like we got a bottom). Secondly right at 1.99/2.00 there is going to be a ton of resistance.

All in all I think that we'll be trading above the 50 day MA shortly and then also below the 2.00 line for the near term (unfortunately).

That is all for today guys I'll try to do some more different stocks tomorrow!

Ideas for the near future:

I wished that I had posted these first two yesterday as they had huge gains today. But c'est la vie!

FCX:

Short: As can be seen the major trendline is currently at around 75 (blue line). There is resistance at 120 (teal line) and the orange line above it is where I would personally put the stop loss (around 124). Now what is interesting that that there was an inverted H&S formed but the volume pattern was not correct and then the subsequent break-out was on lower volume. Thus to me it looks like a failed bullish breakout that hit resistance at 120 and then will fall below the neckline. Furthermore the MACD Histogram seems to have leveled off. I entered a position at 118.5 and will ride it down (unless my stop loss is hit) until about the 100 area when I will take out some profits and then take the rest of the profits at 90 or so. Oh yeah and it could also be construed as a double top... (it fell almost 3% today from the 118.5 mark)

IP:

Long: To me it looks like a double bottom could be forming in this company at $25.00. The MACD trendlines need to break through the trend-line to really get this security But the MACD Histogram has started to show a positive divergence upwards toward the zero line and thus makes this a good opportunity. Now as far as the trend-lines go it looks as if it is in a bearish trending channel but since it is at the lower trend-line again it is another good buying opportunity. Since today it ended up around 3.5% my price target is about 26.5-26 depending on how things are shaping up for the stock and the dow in general over the next couple of days but my ending target is around 29 with at stop loss below 25.

KRY:

This is an extremely risky play but I really like it. First the weekly:

What needs to be noted here is the down-ward channel that the stock was trading in and then the subsequent down-ward break-out of the channel on huge volume for the stock. The only other things of note are the RSI and MACD trend-lines which look to be holding.


Now these are the trend-lines from the first graph. The upper trend-line for the channel isn't as important as the bottom which I made sure was a very good trend-line. What is EXTREMELY interesting is where the 3rd up-day's high was after the bottom. It stops RIGHT AT the bottom trend-line which is now resistance. That held on very large volume.

From here I think that KRY will eventually get back down to the .6/.5. Stop is obviously above the bottom trend-line I think I might try to get in tomorrow around 1.10-ish or so

That is all for tonight more to come tomorrow

Ideas for this week:

As stated before:

Long CF

Short XOP, ICE

Now for some new analysis:

COP:

As can be seen from this chart it looks as if COP has made a triple top on the weekly graph. The MACD is still showing a negative trendline as is the RSI. Furthermore on a daily chart there is a hammer candle on Friday and a bearish doji on today's chart. So the thoughts on this one are:

Short at: 88.25
Cover at: 90.00
Profits: 76.00

Positions

Currently to do my trading I am doing a simulation using www.updown.com

The website currently is not real-time and thus is not very good for day-trading but will work for swing trading. Currently over the time that I have been trading on this "account" of a starting value of $1,000,000 since April (I didn't trade much in April) my return is over 7%.

Currently in my portfolio I have (symbol, position, price paid, stop price, profit price)

CF: Long, 134.00, 134.5 (moved up the stop price because of the 10 day MA that seems to be holding), 155.00

ICE: Short, 161.00, 165, 135

XOP: Short, 62.78, 64, 55

Some of my biggest wins have been:

Long: Pot, Mon

Short: Bidu, FSLR

I'll be working on keeping my portfolio up to date:

Currently I have a limit order to short COP at 88.25 (which should get filled tomorrow) (I will talk about this in the next post)

I am going to look through my securities list and see which companies also look good as potential candidates.

Market this week

So here is what we're looking at as far as the broad markets go:

Dow Jones:

So again it looks like the Dow Jones is still in a downtrend but this week will be affected a lot by the earnings reports coming out. The MACD still is showing a negative trend-line and so too is the RSI.

S&P 500:

Now this down-trend seems to be a bit more valid as it has 3 points on it. Furthermore it looks like the histogram has leveled off and the MACD has not gone above the down-trendline, and again the same is true with the RSI as with the Dow Jones.

It looks as if both indices will go back down to test the 1350 area for the S&P and the 12,500 area for the Dow Jones.

If either breaks above that down trendline decisively then the bulls might have a case that the "bear market" is finally over but that would take a decisive down-turn for crude oil.

Sorry again that I haven't been around lately

1. My girlfriend was in town this weekend

2. I had an interview on Wednesday, flew out Tuesday just got back... So here's some thoughts on some trades:

ICE:

Again looks like after today's 3% downturn they might finally be starting to show that h&S top I've been talking about!

XOP:



As can be seen there is a very nice channel on the weekly charts that was violated on very low volume compared to the run-up. Also the MACD has had a similar channel and will probably see a continuation of this pattern.

Stop loss: 63.5
Profits: 52.5
Total down to bottom of channel: 48

Also last week for my updown portfolio I added both Pot and Mon and both are at about 5-7% gains looking to get up to about 10% gains then i'll start dumping them as that is where some resistance is.

CF:

I said that CF was due for a pullback a while back and sure enough pulled back about 20%. Now it has stopped at support at about 130 and looks prime to continue it's upleg here's the weekly chart:


The keep points to take away are that:

1. The MACD is still showing an uptrend

2. The RSI has still not gone below the horizontal line (also above 50 another line of support)

3. The uptrend is still very much in place and to break this uptrend the price would have to drop to less than 120.

4. The only negative that I see on the graph is that the acceleration of the graph upwards has slowed down (as evidenced by the ADX). The trendline has shown that the chart is not trending anymore but that a new trend is not in place yet.

Now onto the Daily Graph:

Now here is the line of support again around 131. The MACD histogram looks to have formed a bottom and looks to be trending upward. The negative volatility has started to decrease as well as the + volatility increasing. Finally from this graph we can easily see that for the trendline to be broken that it would have to break 110.00.

So:

Get in at < 135
Stop loss: 129
Profits: 155

If it breaks the support on heavy volume might want to think about switching to a short and ride it back down to the trendline and then go long again.