Next Week Revisiting Some Old Plays:

AMX:

As I said before AMX looks like a good short (read the old post) and so far hasn't changed all too much from where I recommended it. The interesting thing is that the technicals have changed all too much but they have become more bearish so here's the new chart:


Obviously the broken H&S and it's neckline are still here. The intresting things that have changed since the last update is that the MACD has crossed into negative territory (as indicated by the dark green circle) (bearish sign) and so too have the ADX (Also bearish). Furthermore I feel that there is the dark green trendline underneath from the lows and another trendline near the top (which oddly enough forms a rising wedge). The RSI has continued to go negative and is at the midpoint. Obviously I still feel that this is a great short opportunity so:

Short above 62.5, cover at the orange line at about 56.2 and your stop loss should be at about 65.

But with this rising wedge I feel that it will break the bottom of the rising wedge this week and trade down to about 56.

VPHM:

Because of the huge movement down of the market on Friday obviously VPHM has been taken with it. Like I said I liked it to be bought around 9.20 where the 50 day MA is. The chart really hasn't changed all that much just like I said needed to test the support and then will hopefully come back up and finally break that resistance at 10.

HAL:

Has cooperated nicely and has broken that neckline and then blew by the resistance at 42. The MACD has went pretty high and most of the oscillators have pointed toward it being oversold but the trend is our friend. So:

Wait for a pullback and buy HAL at about 42.2

Buy:42.2
Stop Loss: 41.8
Profit take 43.9

We'll see if it keeps going up but I doubt it. HAL needs to pull back a bit and test that resistance IMO

Thursday Analysis:

Dow:
The dow has still stayed below the neckline so the h&S pattern is still intact. Again it looks like we should finish down for the week and should finish below 12,500.

Short:
Everybody has been pumping up AMX as it is the majority player in Latin America but from a technical analysis perspective it looks like they may be taking a bit of a break. Here's the chart:
As can be seen they did form an inverted H&S pattern and then broke-out on higher volume but here is the thing they broke the neckline and whenever that happens the pattern is suspect. Also as can be seen the OBV has been trending lower since Februrary and the RSI since April. Should get back down to about 56.00

Long: HAL, VPHM

HAL: First again lets look at HAL: as I said in yesterday's post HAL had formed an inverted H&S and everything looked good but there was that huge resistance barrier at 42. Well HAL broke it yesterday but not on that great of volume and today is up another 2% as I post this. Look for HAL to come down from these highs to test the 42 line and buy here at this opportunity.

VPHM: Has been a stock I've followed now for several years since their run in with the FDA and the FDA wanting to allow generics to come to market sooner which subsequently dropped their stock a good 50% in a day and since then has been languishing in the single digits after being in the 20's and teens. Here's the chart and why I like it now:

So on first glance we see that there is a lot of resistance at 10.00 which is obviously a big round number. But what we see from the chart is that an ascending triangle has been forming since August. Also the other thing confirming the triangle is that the volume has been dropping ever since the start of the Triangle in August which is a sign that a Triangle has formed. Furthermore, we see on this weekly chart that the RSI has been increasing since the big drop and has just passed over the 50 mark. Also, the MACD is just about to go positive and has shown positive divergences since August. Finally as can be noticed is that the ADX has finally crossed over and is not to be trending which is a good thing since the last trend was a downtrend. There is one bad thing about the chart the 10 week moving average is right at 9.00 and should provide support but the 50 week ma is at 10.50 right now and will bring added resistance at 10.50 so if it does break out at 10 it might be in a very small trading range for a month or 2 until it either breaks the 50 week MA or breaks the support at 10.00.

From the looks of things it looks as if VPHM will be breaking out sometime this month there are a few options for this type of play:

A: Buy on weakness near the lows of 9.00 and ride it up to the resistance at 10.

B: Buy on weakness near the lows of 9.00 and wait it out and see if it will pass the resistance at 10.

C: Wait until it shows a positive break-out with increasing volume and then wait for the pullback to test the new line of support at 10.00 and then buy there and ride it up.