At the beginning of every week I will take a look at the broad market as a whole and discuss what important updates will be happening in the week and if any significant reports/earnings will be coming out.

Then everyday I will try to find a new stock that I feel is poised for a big next couple of days and set price targets, stops, etc.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Looking back at the week

IBM:
Had very strong earnings and thus had a nice pop today past the 120 barrier up to about 123.72. Look for it to continue to push higher and then pull back to about 120 (support) and buy on this dip and then sell at where the last peak was...

Should make for a good few percent.. again have a stop below the support at 120.

AMX:
Like I said it was a busted inverted H&S that failed a bullish breakout... Here's the chart:
Now like I said before because it did close below the neckline the inverted H&S is suspect but let's look at everything else.

First: The ADX trendline has pretty much stayed flat throughout this course although the + DI has gone up from the crossover. The MACD histogram just passed over the 0 line (buy signal) and the RSI has shown a positive divergence.

Second: The volume though has been puny and this "breakout" again above the neckline might not hold (again).

A few more notes on this chart: The low of the previous day and this day pretty much sit at the neckline (bullish) although today's was almost a hanging man formation... (bearish). Furthermore since mid January AMX has formed a series of higher highs and lower lows (blue trendline) so even if it does fall it will either stop at the neckline or the trendline probably at 63. Finally the Parabolic SAR has moved below the price so that's also bullish.

All in all it looks like AMX will probably go higher for a bit, then re-test that neckline.

VPHM:
Had some horrible fundamental news come out (again ugh I can't help that guys). Basically one of their promising drugs (I think it was in stage 2 of trials) had to be pulled because of health concerns for it's patients (for hep C). Now FUNDAMENTALLY they aren't as good of a play since they lost one of their pipeline drugs but they still do have tons of cash on hand and could (and probably should) now purchase either a company or a pipeline drug to boost up their pipeline but we shall see. Again this is a technical blog so let's check things out:
So technically the stock hasn't really changed all that much and the nice thing is that the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA will eventually cross over and that will be a very good day for the bulls. Furthermore the really nice thing (see the circle) is that the low of the week has stopped right at the 10 week MA. Now then going to the day chart it looks like VPHM still has a bit of a downward slope to go through so I'd like to revise my buying to around the trendline mark at about 8.3.

HAL:
It finally looks like HAL might take a pullback very very soon. Here's the chart:
As can be seen the RSI is greatly into oversold territory and the MACD histogram looks like it has peaked and has started a negative divergence back to the baseline. So right now isn't the right time to buy but I'd say give Hal a day or 2 and we might be seeing a nice pullback to the neckline.

So again wait and see on this bad boy to make sure that the MACD is going down and that the RSI will start to also go negative (and ya know for Hal to actually *dare I say it* have a negative day!).

SLB:
Another Oil Services play. From the weeklies it looks like SLB could still be going up. The MACD just crossed into bullish territory, the LOD was right at the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA is about to cross the 50 week MA. RSI is going postive and the Parabolic SAR is below the price. Now onto the daily chart:

Now the interesting things about the chart is let's look back at the H&S pattern. To determine the move after the breakthrough and your "rough target" it is the height of the head from the neckline (in this case about 20 pts) taken down from the breakthrough point which is coincidentally enough right at 20 pts. Wow the magic of TA.

Anyways again the volume breaking through the neckline isn't that great so that is rather worrisome for the bulls but the ADX trendine is pointing up and their is a good spread between the +/- DI. Furthermore the MACD was showing a negative divergence but then stopped and picked up a bit and then leveled off. (which looks like it might continue to go negative). The Rising wedge pattern i pointed out from last time (left here for illustrations sake) was broken on the upside so that pattern is suspect. But from right here tomorrow I feel that SLB is going to have a down day for the next couple of days. Why you might ask with all of these "happy things" in TA land..

Well:

OIH set a new high today right at about 200 (a nice round number) and also formed a hammer on the daily graph. And a hammer is a very good sign of a top (at least for a few days and a nice pick for a little pullback). Now if you look at SLB you will notice an even more pronounced hammer. So IMO SLB will probably make a pullback for the next 2-3 days back into about the 85-90 range and would be a good place to pick up some cheap shares.

Indu:
I'm going to wait to form my analysis of the Industrial Average until tomorrow but IMO it looks like we could finally break that resistance at 12,750. because I really doubt that tomorrow is going to be a down day and it does look like the INDU has formed a series of higher low's. Who knows though maybe we'll just trade in this thousand point range for a while...

CF:
Now CF was something I didn't put a lot of thought into but I've noticed some trends and this is extremely speculative and this baby really hasn't shown any technical forms to show it's at a top but like I said I think it's running out of steam. The chart:

Okay so the first things to notice is the last move was about a 50 pt move and then a pullback to about the 38% fib level. Then another 50 pt move and now hopefully a pullback to the 38% fib level (i'd personally say to take profits at 132 (which about a good 12% no reason to get greedy and try to go down to the fib at about 120 especially in a stock in an uptrend like this one with higher highs and lower lows.) Now the positive things as to why this is going lower. If you look at the Histo it looks like it's formed a top and it started forming a negative divergence back to zero. Also the RSI is into over-sold territory and the Parabolic Sar (circle) looks to be catching up to the price and might get to it as early as tomorrow or maybe the day after. It will all depend on what tomorrow holds. If it's a nice big down day with a big red candle it should be all systems go back to the fib level. Then buy back at the 38% fib level and go long for another 50 pts!

That's about it for everything that I've mentioned recently. An update tomorrow on securities that look good for next week (hopefully CF, maybe CPST, maybe HAL, maybe CEPH, or even FSLR). Let's just see how the rest of the week unfolds.

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