Ideas for this week:

Again I really have to say that I'm loving the action on ICE. Here's the chart:

I know I called this one a few weeks ago but it is going so great I just had to bring it up again: As can be seen good h&S top pattern with a good volume pattern. RSI and MACD are all showing a bearish-divergence. Looks good down to 120-130 area!

IP: has done really well and will definitely suffer some pullbacks since it's gone all the way up to 28/29. A good indicator that it will do well in the long term is that Cramer bashed it in the lightning round so that's always good for business :-p

AA:
So from this chart of alcoa you can see that there is strong resistance at 48 that was established in July of last year. The next thing that can be noticed is that there is an upward trendline (green line). It was broken in early 08 but has since recovered above it. The MACD and RSI have the same trend and were also broken at the same time. The interesting thing about this chart is that AA looks to have form an inverted H&S with a neckline (in purple) at 39. My guess is that this is going to go up hit the resistance come back down to the neckline and then go back up to test that resistance. So we'll see what happens with that more of a watch and wait with this one...

ATI:
This chart isn't set up as well as some of my others but... here goes.

Trendline was broken. Strong resistance at 86. RSI bumping up against the 50 mark and also the downward trendline. Should go down to about 70 but if it breaks 60 it will go down a LOT farther!

SOPW:
DISCLAIMER: I currently own SOPW and this is more for the people that have invested in SOPW with me...
Now let's look at the chart..

Positives: To me it looks like SOPW has found a bottom. It has held support at 1.16 and the MACD has shown a positive divergence through the down-trend-line, ditto for the RSI. Furthermore it broke the down-ward trend-line in mid april.

Negatives: There is a LOT of overhead resistance. First the stock has NEVER been above it's 50 day Moving Average so just getting above that is going to be a real chore (as evidenced by it bumping up against it every time and going lower). But we are reaching a spot where it's going to go over the 50 day MA or it's going to roll-over dead (I hope it's the former and I think it should be the former since it looks like we got a bottom). Secondly right at 1.99/2.00 there is going to be a ton of resistance.

All in all I think that we'll be trading above the 50 day MA shortly and then also below the 2.00 line for the near term (unfortunately).

That is all for today guys I'll try to do some more different stocks tomorrow!

Ideas for the near future:

I wished that I had posted these first two yesterday as they had huge gains today. But c'est la vie!

FCX:

Short: As can be seen the major trendline is currently at around 75 (blue line). There is resistance at 120 (teal line) and the orange line above it is where I would personally put the stop loss (around 124). Now what is interesting that that there was an inverted H&S formed but the volume pattern was not correct and then the subsequent break-out was on lower volume. Thus to me it looks like a failed bullish breakout that hit resistance at 120 and then will fall below the neckline. Furthermore the MACD Histogram seems to have leveled off. I entered a position at 118.5 and will ride it down (unless my stop loss is hit) until about the 100 area when I will take out some profits and then take the rest of the profits at 90 or so. Oh yeah and it could also be construed as a double top... (it fell almost 3% today from the 118.5 mark)

IP:

Long: To me it looks like a double bottom could be forming in this company at $25.00. The MACD trendlines need to break through the trend-line to really get this security But the MACD Histogram has started to show a positive divergence upwards toward the zero line and thus makes this a good opportunity. Now as far as the trend-lines go it looks as if it is in a bearish trending channel but since it is at the lower trend-line again it is another good buying opportunity. Since today it ended up around 3.5% my price target is about 26.5-26 depending on how things are shaping up for the stock and the dow in general over the next couple of days but my ending target is around 29 with at stop loss below 25.

KRY:

This is an extremely risky play but I really like it. First the weekly:

What needs to be noted here is the down-ward channel that the stock was trading in and then the subsequent down-ward break-out of the channel on huge volume for the stock. The only other things of note are the RSI and MACD trend-lines which look to be holding.


Now these are the trend-lines from the first graph. The upper trend-line for the channel isn't as important as the bottom which I made sure was a very good trend-line. What is EXTREMELY interesting is where the 3rd up-day's high was after the bottom. It stops RIGHT AT the bottom trend-line which is now resistance. That held on very large volume.

From here I think that KRY will eventually get back down to the .6/.5. Stop is obviously above the bottom trend-line I think I might try to get in tomorrow around 1.10-ish or so

That is all for tonight more to come tomorrow

Ideas for this week:

As stated before:

Long CF

Short XOP, ICE

Now for some new analysis:

COP:

As can be seen from this chart it looks as if COP has made a triple top on the weekly graph. The MACD is still showing a negative trendline as is the RSI. Furthermore on a daily chart there is a hammer candle on Friday and a bearish doji on today's chart. So the thoughts on this one are:

Short at: 88.25
Cover at: 90.00
Profits: 76.00

Positions

Currently to do my trading I am doing a simulation using www.updown.com

The website currently is not real-time and thus is not very good for day-trading but will work for swing trading. Currently over the time that I have been trading on this "account" of a starting value of $1,000,000 since April (I didn't trade much in April) my return is over 7%.

Currently in my portfolio I have (symbol, position, price paid, stop price, profit price)

CF: Long, 134.00, 134.5 (moved up the stop price because of the 10 day MA that seems to be holding), 155.00

ICE: Short, 161.00, 165, 135

XOP: Short, 62.78, 64, 55

Some of my biggest wins have been:

Long: Pot, Mon

Short: Bidu, FSLR

I'll be working on keeping my portfolio up to date:

Currently I have a limit order to short COP at 88.25 (which should get filled tomorrow) (I will talk about this in the next post)

I am going to look through my securities list and see which companies also look good as potential candidates.

Market this week

So here is what we're looking at as far as the broad markets go:

Dow Jones:

So again it looks like the Dow Jones is still in a downtrend but this week will be affected a lot by the earnings reports coming out. The MACD still is showing a negative trend-line and so too is the RSI.

S&P 500:

Now this down-trend seems to be a bit more valid as it has 3 points on it. Furthermore it looks like the histogram has leveled off and the MACD has not gone above the down-trendline, and again the same is true with the RSI as with the Dow Jones.

It looks as if both indices will go back down to test the 1350 area for the S&P and the 12,500 area for the Dow Jones.

If either breaks above that down trendline decisively then the bulls might have a case that the "bear market" is finally over but that would take a decisive down-turn for crude oil.

Sorry again that I haven't been around lately

1. My girlfriend was in town this weekend

2. I had an interview on Wednesday, flew out Tuesday just got back... So here's some thoughts on some trades:

ICE:

Again looks like after today's 3% downturn they might finally be starting to show that h&S top I've been talking about!

XOP:



As can be seen there is a very nice channel on the weekly charts that was violated on very low volume compared to the run-up. Also the MACD has had a similar channel and will probably see a continuation of this pattern.

Stop loss: 63.5
Profits: 52.5
Total down to bottom of channel: 48

Also last week for my updown portfolio I added both Pot and Mon and both are at about 5-7% gains looking to get up to about 10% gains then i'll start dumping them as that is where some resistance is.

CF:

I said that CF was due for a pullback a while back and sure enough pulled back about 20%. Now it has stopped at support at about 130 and looks prime to continue it's upleg here's the weekly chart:


The keep points to take away are that:

1. The MACD is still showing an uptrend

2. The RSI has still not gone below the horizontal line (also above 50 another line of support)

3. The uptrend is still very much in place and to break this uptrend the price would have to drop to less than 120.

4. The only negative that I see on the graph is that the acceleration of the graph upwards has slowed down (as evidenced by the ADX). The trendline has shown that the chart is not trending anymore but that a new trend is not in place yet.

Now onto the Daily Graph:

Now here is the line of support again around 131. The MACD histogram looks to have formed a bottom and looks to be trending upward. The negative volatility has started to decrease as well as the + volatility increasing. Finally from this graph we can easily see that for the trendline to be broken that it would have to break 110.00.

So:

Get in at < 135
Stop loss: 129
Profits: 155

If it breaks the support on heavy volume might want to think about switching to a short and ride it back down to the trendline and then go long again.

ICE ICE Baby!

Okay guys so tomorrow is the big day and I'll work on getting some brief comments on where we should be looking at going after the GDP and the FED announcement. The only other big event this week is Friday's unemployment numbers...

With that said here's a chart to tide you over:

ICE:
Okay so that is the chart for ICE what needs to be mentioned is the teal trendline that was broken earlier this year. Furthermore it looks to me like a H&S top has formed with the correct volume pattern (decreasing). Now all that needs to happen is a break through the neckline at 110 and this chart is in business.

Other things in the chart the MACD has not violated it's downward trend and neither has the RSI as it has bounced right off the downward trendline.

As far as price targets and stops go:

Short at around 155
Stop at around 165.
Take partial profits at the neckline at 110.00 and take full profits at around 80 (although this pattern could go all the way down to 60!!!

That is all until tomorrow good night!

My database has been created and over the next day or 2 I'll start doing my analysis

The thing that I'm kind of waiting on is Wednesday because of the GDP report. This is going to set the tone as to which way that this market is going to move and pretty much everyone is waiting on this report to see which side of the fence to lie on.

So There probably won't be any charts until after tomorrow's report!!

Light Posting

Light posting will be happening for the next few days as I am building a data-base so that I can cover my stocks in less time.

Eventually I hope to be posting once a day about what is going on.

Beat the Street Picks:

Okay guys here are my BTS picks for this week. Keep in mind I picked extremely volatile stocks because to win this contest the gains for all 5 stocks have to be around 20%. With that said here are the picks:

HAL Short: Again Hal is at it's 52 week high. RSI is at 85% so there really cannot be that many more people to take the stock higher. Furthermore their earnings come out on Monday and SLB missed their earnings for this past quarter so I look for HAL to do the same and to give back these monster gains (and they are due for a pullback anyways).

BIDU Short: I feel that Bidu had a huge play off of Google's earnings and I feel that they will have a big fall off (10% on friday) plus nearing some gap resistance at 340.

Goog Long: After google's strong earnings on Friday I feel like they will continue to go up.

Citi Short: Citi up HUGE on Friday I don't see how with their huge write-off's..

CF Short: Again at 52 week high high RSI needing a pullback..

Let's see how I do..

The Dow for next week Technicals

Okay guys here's the chart for next week as promised..:
Okay so I know a bunch of lines are on this graph.. So let's take a look at them. The blue trendline is the long term trendline and as can be seen has not been violated as it is at about 12,000. Then there is the H&S top pattern that is shown in Purple and it looks to me like that pattern is very suspect so I think I'm just going to discard that pattern. Then there are the green lines. The green lines are support (12,750) and resistance (13,000). If the bulls don't take it above 13,000 this week I will guarantee that the support at 12,750 will not hold and we'll go back down. Finally there is the Orange trendline which is the short term downtrend that we are currently in which goes from the head to the shoulder and then touches this most recent top. We need to break out of this trendline if the market is going to be going higher.

Onto the other idicators: The MACD has just crossed and the MACD histogram has come into bullish territory. The ADX DI- has gone down and is getting closer to the DI+ but has not crossed over yet. Furthermore it looks as if the ADX trendline might be coming down which would be bad for the bears. Finally the RSI looks like it is about to bounce off of the trendline formed from the head.

All in all this next week will again depend on the earnings announcements but technically it still looks like we need to go lower, base for a bit, form a bottom and then break out. Close on the week above 13k is bullish and below 12.75 is bearish.

Looking back at the week

IBM:
Had very strong earnings and thus had a nice pop today past the 120 barrier up to about 123.72. Look for it to continue to push higher and then pull back to about 120 (support) and buy on this dip and then sell at where the last peak was...

Should make for a good few percent.. again have a stop below the support at 120.

AMX:
Like I said it was a busted inverted H&S that failed a bullish breakout... Here's the chart:
Now like I said before because it did close below the neckline the inverted H&S is suspect but let's look at everything else.

First: The ADX trendline has pretty much stayed flat throughout this course although the + DI has gone up from the crossover. The MACD histogram just passed over the 0 line (buy signal) and the RSI has shown a positive divergence.

Second: The volume though has been puny and this "breakout" again above the neckline might not hold (again).

A few more notes on this chart: The low of the previous day and this day pretty much sit at the neckline (bullish) although today's was almost a hanging man formation... (bearish). Furthermore since mid January AMX has formed a series of higher highs and lower lows (blue trendline) so even if it does fall it will either stop at the neckline or the trendline probably at 63. Finally the Parabolic SAR has moved below the price so that's also bullish.

All in all it looks like AMX will probably go higher for a bit, then re-test that neckline.

VPHM:
Had some horrible fundamental news come out (again ugh I can't help that guys). Basically one of their promising drugs (I think it was in stage 2 of trials) had to be pulled because of health concerns for it's patients (for hep C). Now FUNDAMENTALLY they aren't as good of a play since they lost one of their pipeline drugs but they still do have tons of cash on hand and could (and probably should) now purchase either a company or a pipeline drug to boost up their pipeline but we shall see. Again this is a technical blog so let's check things out:
So technically the stock hasn't really changed all that much and the nice thing is that the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA will eventually cross over and that will be a very good day for the bulls. Furthermore the really nice thing (see the circle) is that the low of the week has stopped right at the 10 week MA. Now then going to the day chart it looks like VPHM still has a bit of a downward slope to go through so I'd like to revise my buying to around the trendline mark at about 8.3.

HAL:
It finally looks like HAL might take a pullback very very soon. Here's the chart:
As can be seen the RSI is greatly into oversold territory and the MACD histogram looks like it has peaked and has started a negative divergence back to the baseline. So right now isn't the right time to buy but I'd say give Hal a day or 2 and we might be seeing a nice pullback to the neckline.

So again wait and see on this bad boy to make sure that the MACD is going down and that the RSI will start to also go negative (and ya know for Hal to actually *dare I say it* have a negative day!).

SLB:
Another Oil Services play. From the weeklies it looks like SLB could still be going up. The MACD just crossed into bullish territory, the LOD was right at the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA is about to cross the 50 week MA. RSI is going postive and the Parabolic SAR is below the price. Now onto the daily chart:

Now the interesting things about the chart is let's look back at the H&S pattern. To determine the move after the breakthrough and your "rough target" it is the height of the head from the neckline (in this case about 20 pts) taken down from the breakthrough point which is coincidentally enough right at 20 pts. Wow the magic of TA.

Anyways again the volume breaking through the neckline isn't that great so that is rather worrisome for the bulls but the ADX trendine is pointing up and their is a good spread between the +/- DI. Furthermore the MACD was showing a negative divergence but then stopped and picked up a bit and then leveled off. (which looks like it might continue to go negative). The Rising wedge pattern i pointed out from last time (left here for illustrations sake) was broken on the upside so that pattern is suspect. But from right here tomorrow I feel that SLB is going to have a down day for the next couple of days. Why you might ask with all of these "happy things" in TA land..

Well:

OIH set a new high today right at about 200 (a nice round number) and also formed a hammer on the daily graph. And a hammer is a very good sign of a top (at least for a few days and a nice pick for a little pullback). Now if you look at SLB you will notice an even more pronounced hammer. So IMO SLB will probably make a pullback for the next 2-3 days back into about the 85-90 range and would be a good place to pick up some cheap shares.

Indu:
I'm going to wait to form my analysis of the Industrial Average until tomorrow but IMO it looks like we could finally break that resistance at 12,750. because I really doubt that tomorrow is going to be a down day and it does look like the INDU has formed a series of higher low's. Who knows though maybe we'll just trade in this thousand point range for a while...

CF:
Now CF was something I didn't put a lot of thought into but I've noticed some trends and this is extremely speculative and this baby really hasn't shown any technical forms to show it's at a top but like I said I think it's running out of steam. The chart:

Okay so the first things to notice is the last move was about a 50 pt move and then a pullback to about the 38% fib level. Then another 50 pt move and now hopefully a pullback to the 38% fib level (i'd personally say to take profits at 132 (which about a good 12% no reason to get greedy and try to go down to the fib at about 120 especially in a stock in an uptrend like this one with higher highs and lower lows.) Now the positive things as to why this is going lower. If you look at the Histo it looks like it's formed a top and it started forming a negative divergence back to zero. Also the RSI is into over-sold territory and the Parabolic Sar (circle) looks to be catching up to the price and might get to it as early as tomorrow or maybe the day after. It will all depend on what tomorrow holds. If it's a nice big down day with a big red candle it should be all systems go back to the fib level. Then buy back at the 38% fib level and go long for another 50 pts!

That's about it for everything that I've mentioned recently. An update tomorrow on securities that look good for next week (hopefully CF, maybe CPST, maybe HAL, maybe CEPH, or even FSLR). Let's just see how the rest of the week unfolds.

Beat the Street

I am going to start playing beat the street. I'll be giving you my picks here every weekend and then following up with them throughout the week.

We'll see how things go! A post will be made about this week, an update on how the old stocks look, and hopefully a new post on some great plays for next week!

Remember guys you can be wrong. I was wrong on IBM fundamentals always trump technicals and their earnings bit me in the ass. But keep in mind that is why we have stop losses and mine was at 20.5 and I think it would have been exercised before the close.

Tuesday (A bit late)

It looks as if CF has finally run out of steam. RSI has made lower highs. The ADX is the thing that I just recently read about so I'm going to use it here. In a trending market/security the ADX should be above 40 but when it is about to stop it's trend it passes below 40 (as CF has done).

My guess is that they will push for 150 hit resistance and then fall back...

Almost bought a PUT on IBM today but didn't have my option account info filled out

I would have bought contracts for MAY 2008 puts strike price @ 120 with a price of $5.60. We'll see how I'll do... I'll keep you posted

Next Week Revisiting Some Old Plays:

AMX:

As I said before AMX looks like a good short (read the old post) and so far hasn't changed all too much from where I recommended it. The interesting thing is that the technicals have changed all too much but they have become more bearish so here's the new chart:


Obviously the broken H&S and it's neckline are still here. The intresting things that have changed since the last update is that the MACD has crossed into negative territory (as indicated by the dark green circle) (bearish sign) and so too have the ADX (Also bearish). Furthermore I feel that there is the dark green trendline underneath from the lows and another trendline near the top (which oddly enough forms a rising wedge). The RSI has continued to go negative and is at the midpoint. Obviously I still feel that this is a great short opportunity so:

Short above 62.5, cover at the orange line at about 56.2 and your stop loss should be at about 65.

But with this rising wedge I feel that it will break the bottom of the rising wedge this week and trade down to about 56.

VPHM:

Because of the huge movement down of the market on Friday obviously VPHM has been taken with it. Like I said I liked it to be bought around 9.20 where the 50 day MA is. The chart really hasn't changed all that much just like I said needed to test the support and then will hopefully come back up and finally break that resistance at 10.

HAL:

Has cooperated nicely and has broken that neckline and then blew by the resistance at 42. The MACD has went pretty high and most of the oscillators have pointed toward it being oversold but the trend is our friend. So:

Wait for a pullback and buy HAL at about 42.2

Buy:42.2
Stop Loss: 41.8
Profit take 43.9

We'll see if it keeps going up but I doubt it. HAL needs to pull back a bit and test that resistance IMO

Next Week some (NEW) Ideas

So again my view on the market hasn't changed but with all of the earnings etc coming out in the coming weeks the market could go either way but with that said I still think that we head lower and tests the lows from March. (11,750)

Here are the stocks I like coming out of the weekend for this week:

SLB:
here's the chart:

As can be seen from this chart SLB had a steady trendline heading upward since 2006 as indicated by the blue trendline. At the start of the new year though SLB broke that trendline on heavy volume (weeklies). The chart kind of looks like a H&S top as evidenced by this daily chart I annotated:

Now the interesting thing here is look at the neckline right at about 93.5 which is now resistance and SLB couldn't plow through it. So on the daily it looks as if we will be going lower because the MACD averages are coming together and have formed a top (to the right of the teal circle). So to me short term I'm thinking that we will be going back down to about the 85.00 region so here might be a smart short with a stop at about 93.1. It also looks to form a rising wedge pattern?

But on the weeklies I definitely form a different opinion long-term. It looks like we've formed a nice price channel (as evidenced by the purple trendlines). Furthermore the RSI, MACD are both making positive divergences from the lows with the histogram going positive for the first time as shown by the teal circle. Also the ADX has crossed (as evidenced by the teal circle) and the trendline has gone back to the "no-trend" position.

The very interesting thing here is this:

That the 50 week MA was crossed this past week and should now be a support level at 90.00.

So to break things down:
Closes about the neckline (Bullish) at about 93, buy, with Stop Loss at: 92.5 and profit taking at 100
Closes below support and the MA at 90.00 (bearish) sell with stop loss at 90.5 and profit taking at 85.
I'm also bullish near the purple trendline (currently about 83) so if it gets down there buy with a stop closing 2 days below the trendline (probably with a stop at about... 80) and a profit taking at the top of the channel probably near the most recent top at about 94.

Long term I'm not too sure which way this one is going to go and I'm going to reserve judgement for a week so that we can figure out which way SLB will be going. It could either stay below the neckline in which case it's probably going to continue going lower but if it breaks it then obviously going higher.

IBM:

IBM has earnings on Wednesday so it's always tough to predict earnings, but I'm fairly confident that IBM will miss earnings because let's face it if GE missed earnings IBM probably will too but because that whole fundamental focus thing let's look at the chart:

So as can be noticed the MACD histogram has topped off and has started making a bearish divergence back toward the 0 line. Furthermore, the RSI has again formed a negative divergence since forming the top in October of last year which I feel has formed a Double Top this past week (as evidenced by the two purple arrows). Now let's look at the resistance and support:

First support looks to be pretty firm at 100 and tested it numerous times. Resistance is obviously at the highs of about 120. During the first peak (purple arrow 1) the chart passed through the more severe trendline (blue) and then passed down to the less steep trendline (pink). Then the chart bounced back up to from the second peak to form the double top.

Sell >117
Stop loss @ 121
Cover @ 101

This pattern if it does break through the pink trendline could probably go back down to about 80 so that is the new price target if that trendline is broken.

Next Week 4.14.08 for the Dow:

The market traded mostly sideways this week until the big jump down on Friday due to GE's missing it's target EPS by .07. This sent the whole market into a tizzy because GE is a bellwether for the economy because it is so diversified and has it's hand in so many different facets of the economy. GE also had it's largest drop since 1987 (14% on the day).

Now why this is significant: (Fundamentally)This has now I think been the final "Nail in the coffin" so to speak for the bulls. I think that they will be very wary to push that hard and I feel that any negative news/earnings from any of the big players will have huge implications on the market, although now everyone will also have their expectations lower.

Now onto the technicals, here's the chart:


So again from last week I mentioned that in 07 the Dow had formed a H&S top formation with the neckline shown in blue (currently crossing at 12,500). The nice thing about this neckline is that we finished again this week below the neckline thus keeping the H&S intact. The levels of support and resistance are shown in orange with resistance at 12,750 and support at 11,750. Furthermore in purple a trendline could be drawn from the lower lows (and the neckline shows the lower highs). The RSI has still shown negative divergencies.

The ADX has shown that the chart is still trending but that the - has shown some bullish convergence with the +. but formed a bearish cross in mid December of last year (as shown in the circle). The MACD has just had a bullish cross near the oversold area but probably will not go very high because of the big red candle we formed today.

Where we go from here:

It still looks as if we still have to retest 11,750 and frankly from a fundamental point of view I don't see how we don't go lower and how we will get past 12,750 in the near-term.

Look to re-test 11,750 and if it holds and see if we can re-test 12,750. If 11,750 doesn't hold we could be in for a longer "bottom" then what a lot of the talking heads think

Thursday Analysis:

Dow:
The dow has still stayed below the neckline so the h&S pattern is still intact. Again it looks like we should finish down for the week and should finish below 12,500.

Short:
Everybody has been pumping up AMX as it is the majority player in Latin America but from a technical analysis perspective it looks like they may be taking a bit of a break. Here's the chart:
As can be seen they did form an inverted H&S pattern and then broke-out on higher volume but here is the thing they broke the neckline and whenever that happens the pattern is suspect. Also as can be seen the OBV has been trending lower since Februrary and the RSI since April. Should get back down to about 56.00

Long: HAL, VPHM

HAL: First again lets look at HAL: as I said in yesterday's post HAL had formed an inverted H&S and everything looked good but there was that huge resistance barrier at 42. Well HAL broke it yesterday but not on that great of volume and today is up another 2% as I post this. Look for HAL to come down from these highs to test the 42 line and buy here at this opportunity.

VPHM: Has been a stock I've followed now for several years since their run in with the FDA and the FDA wanting to allow generics to come to market sooner which subsequently dropped their stock a good 50% in a day and since then has been languishing in the single digits after being in the 20's and teens. Here's the chart and why I like it now:

So on first glance we see that there is a lot of resistance at 10.00 which is obviously a big round number. But what we see from the chart is that an ascending triangle has been forming since August. Also the other thing confirming the triangle is that the volume has been dropping ever since the start of the Triangle in August which is a sign that a Triangle has formed. Furthermore, we see on this weekly chart that the RSI has been increasing since the big drop and has just passed over the 50 mark. Also, the MACD is just about to go positive and has shown positive divergences since August. Finally as can be noticed is that the ADX has finally crossed over and is not to be trending which is a good thing since the last trend was a downtrend. There is one bad thing about the chart the 10 week moving average is right at 9.00 and should provide support but the 50 week ma is at 10.50 right now and will bring added resistance at 10.50 so if it does break out at 10 it might be in a very small trading range for a month or 2 until it either breaks the 50 week MA or breaks the support at 10.00.

From the looks of things it looks as if VPHM will be breaking out sometime this month there are a few options for this type of play:

A: Buy on weakness near the lows of 9.00 and ride it up to the resistance at 10.

B: Buy on weakness near the lows of 9.00 and wait it out and see if it will pass the resistance at 10.

C: Wait until it shows a positive break-out with increasing volume and then wait for the pullback to test the new line of support at 10.00 and then buy there and ride it up.

Wednesday Analysis

The market didn't really change that much yesterday so the Tuesday analysis is still in place which either way it goes will have large implications on securities in general

HAL while I have been Bearish about Halliburton in the past week I think that I have actually changed my tune a little bit here. Here's the chart:

So as can be seen the OBV has been trending up the whole time for over a year and a half which is tending toward a bullish breakout. Furthermore the MACD just turned positive over the zero line and still has a ways to go so that it can really become bullish. Also, the RSI has gotten close to becoming oversold but it hasn't pushed over the 70 mark yet so it obviously has some up leg to go.

Again though there still seems to be a lot of resistance at 42. My guess is that it will bounce off of the resistance and then fall back down to the neckline of this inverted head and shoulders pattern (that I feel is kind of weak because of the volume as the volume on the downlegs should have decreased with each trough). If the neckline stays in tact and HAL doesn't close below 40 then that would be a great buying point if it does close below 40 then all bets are off and I think that it'll be going lower.