At the beginning of every week I will take a look at the broad market as a whole and discuss what important updates will be happening in the week and if any significant reports/earnings will be coming out.

Then everyday I will try to find a new stock that I feel is poised for a big next couple of days and set price targets, stops, etc.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Next Week some (NEW) Ideas

So again my view on the market hasn't changed but with all of the earnings etc coming out in the coming weeks the market could go either way but with that said I still think that we head lower and tests the lows from March. (11,750)

Here are the stocks I like coming out of the weekend for this week:

SLB:
here's the chart:

As can be seen from this chart SLB had a steady trendline heading upward since 2006 as indicated by the blue trendline. At the start of the new year though SLB broke that trendline on heavy volume (weeklies). The chart kind of looks like a H&S top as evidenced by this daily chart I annotated:

Now the interesting thing here is look at the neckline right at about 93.5 which is now resistance and SLB couldn't plow through it. So on the daily it looks as if we will be going lower because the MACD averages are coming together and have formed a top (to the right of the teal circle). So to me short term I'm thinking that we will be going back down to about the 85.00 region so here might be a smart short with a stop at about 93.1. It also looks to form a rising wedge pattern?

But on the weeklies I definitely form a different opinion long-term. It looks like we've formed a nice price channel (as evidenced by the purple trendlines). Furthermore the RSI, MACD are both making positive divergences from the lows with the histogram going positive for the first time as shown by the teal circle. Also the ADX has crossed (as evidenced by the teal circle) and the trendline has gone back to the "no-trend" position.

The very interesting thing here is this:

That the 50 week MA was crossed this past week and should now be a support level at 90.00.

So to break things down:
Closes about the neckline (Bullish) at about 93, buy, with Stop Loss at: 92.5 and profit taking at 100
Closes below support and the MA at 90.00 (bearish) sell with stop loss at 90.5 and profit taking at 85.
I'm also bullish near the purple trendline (currently about 83) so if it gets down there buy with a stop closing 2 days below the trendline (probably with a stop at about... 80) and a profit taking at the top of the channel probably near the most recent top at about 94.

Long term I'm not too sure which way this one is going to go and I'm going to reserve judgement for a week so that we can figure out which way SLB will be going. It could either stay below the neckline in which case it's probably going to continue going lower but if it breaks it then obviously going higher.

IBM:

IBM has earnings on Wednesday so it's always tough to predict earnings, but I'm fairly confident that IBM will miss earnings because let's face it if GE missed earnings IBM probably will too but because that whole fundamental focus thing let's look at the chart:

So as can be noticed the MACD histogram has topped off and has started making a bearish divergence back toward the 0 line. Furthermore, the RSI has again formed a negative divergence since forming the top in October of last year which I feel has formed a Double Top this past week (as evidenced by the two purple arrows). Now let's look at the resistance and support:

First support looks to be pretty firm at 100 and tested it numerous times. Resistance is obviously at the highs of about 120. During the first peak (purple arrow 1) the chart passed through the more severe trendline (blue) and then passed down to the less steep trendline (pink). Then the chart bounced back up to from the second peak to form the double top.

Sell >117
Stop loss @ 121
Cover @ 101

This pattern if it does break through the pink trendline could probably go back down to about 80 so that is the new price target if that trendline is broken.

No comments: